The NFL Says 87% of Its Games Are Free. Sportico Ran the Numbers. The Real Figure Is Closer to 33%.
- 87% the NFL's claimed share of games available on free over-the-air broadcast television — NFL
- ~33% Sportico's calculated share of NFL games actually accessible for free to fans nationally — Sportico
- 5 games moving to YouTube exclusive streaming in 2026 — another paywall for fans — Sportico
- DOJ opened an investigation into NFL TV deals — Sportico says the legal threat may be more posture than substance — Sportico
The NFL routinely claims that 87% of its games air on free, over-the-air broadcast television — one of the league’s favorite talking points when defending its media deals against public scrutiny. Sportico decided to actually count. The analysis found the real figure nationally accessible for free is closer to 33%.
The gap is not a rounding error. It reflects how the NFL counts “free” versus how fans actually experience access — and it matters more in 2026 than ever, as the league pushes more games behind streaming paywalls.
The NFL’s 87% figure is technically accurate by a narrow definition: 87% of games air on at least one broadcast network (CBS, Fox, NBC, ABC) in at least one market. The NFL uses the local-market standard — if a game is on free TV in the home markets of both competing teams, it counts as “free.”
Sportico’s analysis looks at national availability — what percentage of games can a fan outside the two competing markets watch for free? The answer: about one in three. The rest require a streaming subscription (Amazon Prime for Thursday Night Football, Peacock for select Sunday games, YouTube for exclusive matchups) or a cable/satellite package.
NFL’s claim: 87% of games are on free OTA broadcast TV.
Sportico’s finding: ~33% of games are nationally accessible for free to fans outside the competing teams’ home markets.
The gap: The NFL counts local-market availability. Sportico counts fan-accessible national availability. The difference between those two standards is the difference between 87% and 33%.
Getting worse: YouTube secured 5 exclusive games in 2026 — adding another required subscription. Poynter estimates a complete NFL viewing setup now costs fans over $1,000 per year in subscriptions and packages.
The Justice Department opened an investigation into NFL TV deals in 2026, examining whether the league’s media arrangements — which include Sports Broadcasting Act antitrust protections — are being used anticompetitively. Fox and Sinclair separately challenged the NFL’s antitrust exemption before the FCC.
Sportico’s legal analysts are skeptical the DOJ investigation will produce significant results — the Sports Broadcasting Act is broad, and the NFL has survived antitrust challenges for decades. But the investigation is a signal that Congress and regulators are paying attention to the gap between the NFL’s public “we’re free” messaging and the actual cost fans pay to watch football.