Newsom Calls the South “Confederate States”
While Running From His Own Record.
California’s bill: $68B deficit. 187K homeless. $6.16 gas. 216K fleeing per year.

Newsom branded seven American states with a Civil War epithet. Critics immediately noted what he did not mention about California.

The post appeared the morning of May 8, 2026. Newsom shared a graphic showing the projected effects of Republican redistricting maps in multiple Southern and Sun Belt states, then captioned it: “Confederate states are rushing through rigged maps to erase Black districts off the map. If this doesn’t make you angry, it should.”

The response was swift and cutting. Critics — including Twitchy and Townhall, which both published fact-check analyses within hours — pointed out that Newsom’s home state of California had itself just been through a contentious redistricting cycle, that California’s own maps faced legal challenges, and that Democrats in Virginia had just had a court-ordered map struck down on the same day Newsom posted. He did not mention any of that.

“Confederate states are rushing through rigged maps to erase Black districts off the map. If this doesn't make you angry, it should.”

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) — social media post, May 8, 2026

The political calculus behind the post is not subtle. Newsom is making a play for Black Democratic primary voters, a constituency that proved decisive in the 2020 Democratic primary and one that a California governor has historically struggled to reach. Calling Southern states “Confederate states” is not an analysis of redistricting law. It is a fundraising email in the form of a social media post.

A memoir. A “red state reading tour.” A CNN interview in primary states. Newsom has been running for months.

The book tour tells the story. In February 2026, Newsom published Young Man in a Hurry: A Memoir of Discovery through Penguin Random House and immediately launched a promotional circuit that bypassed New York and Washington in favor of Nashville, Atlanta, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. The symbolism was impossible to miss: those are presidential primary geography stops, not California book club cities.

On February 22, 2026, CNN anchor Dana Bash interviewed Newsom and asked him directly what would happen if his 2028 path collided with that of former Vice President Kamala Harris. Newsom did not rule out a race against her. He discussed the question in the present tense. A month earlier, in October 2025, he had told CBS he’d “be lying” if he denied considering a run.

By December 2025, rival Democratic operatives were already describing Newsom as “the guy to beat” in the 2028 field, per CNN analysis. His national profile has been built largely on confrontation with the Trump administration — an approach that earns wall-to-wall cable coverage but has done nothing to close California’s budget gap or move its 187,000 homeless people off the street.

The LAO projects deficits growing to $35 billion annually by 2027-28. That is before Newsom would take office — if he wins.

In December 2023, the California Legislative Analyst’s Office projected a $68 billion deficit for fiscal year 2024-25 — the largest in state history. The Newsom administration disputed the top-line number but confirmed a $38 billion shortfall in its own January 2024 counter-projection. Both figures represented a governance failure of historic proportions. The 2025-26 budget required another $15 billion in corrective actions.

By November 2025, the LAO was projecting an $18 billion deficit for FY 2026-27 — $5 billion worse than anticipated just months earlier, despite $11 billion in unexpected revenue gains. The reason: constitutional spending mandates under Propositions 98 and 2 consumed the windfall before it could reduce the gap. Spending is growing faster than revenue, and the trajectory does not flatten. The LAO projects the structural shortfall will reach $35 billion per year by 2027-28.

The cumulative LAO projection from 2022-23 through 2027-28 shows a total structural shortfall of approximately $155 billion— a figure that does not include unfunded pension liabilities, deferred infrastructure maintenance, or the accelerating costs of the homelessness response programs that have failed to reduce the actual homeless count by any meaningful margin.

“The state is facing a structural deficit — spending is growing faster than revenues — and we project that to persist for the foreseeable future.”

California Legislative Analyst's Office — Fiscal Outlook, November 2025

California has 5% of the U.S. population and 28% of its homeless. Newsom has governed it for six years.

The 2024 HUD Annual Homelessness Assessment Report — the gold-standard federal point-in-time count — found that 187,084 people were homeless in California on a single January night in 2024. That is 28 percent of the entire U.S. homeless population, concentrated in a state that holds roughly 12 percent of the country’s total residents. California’s unsheltered rate — the share of its homeless population living entirely outdoors rather than in shelters — was 66 percent.

Newsom has spent billions of state dollars on homelessness programs during his tenure. In 2021 alone, the Legislature appropriated more than $12 billion for housing and homelessness over two years. The 2024 HUD count still showed a 3 percent increase in California’s homeless population from the prior year, against a national increase of 18 percent. Newsom’s office cited the comparison as evidence of progress. The absolute number — 187,084 human beings sleeping outside — is the largest in the country by a wide margin and has never been substantially reduced on his watch.

Californians pay $6.16 per gallon while the national average is $4.55. The difference is largely policy — Newsom’s policy.

As of May 2026, the AAA average price for regular gasoline in California is $6.16 per gallon — the highest of any state in the country. The national average is $4.55. Californians pay a premium of roughly $1.61 per gallon above the U.S. norm. For a driver who fills a 15-gallon tank twice a month, that is more than $578 per year in California-specific costs.

California’s state excise tax on gasoline exceeded 68 cents per gallon in 2026 — the highest of any state. Beyond the excise tax, California imposes a unique set of environmental regulations, including requirements for a special summer-blend fuel formulation that cannot be sourced from most out-of-state refineries, creating a structurally inelastic local market. Every governor since Gray Davis has inherited some version of this structure. Only one governor has had six full years to address it and has chosen instead to veto legislation that would have suspended the gas tax during economic pressure periods: Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA).

California lost $11.9 billion in net income to domestic migration in a single year. Over a decade, $102 billion walked out the door.

IRS migration data — compiled from year-over-year address changes on individual tax returns — show California consistently leading the nation in net income outflow. In the most recently available year of full IRS data, California posted a net income outflow of $11.9 billion from domestic migration, the largest of any state. Over the 2019-2023 period, the cumulative net income loss was $91.4 billion — the largest in the nation, surpassing New York ($76.7B) and Illinois ($41.1B).

The departures are not evenly distributed. In a single year, California lost 24,670 taxpayers with adjusted gross income over $200,000 — high earners whose departure reduced the state’s combined AGI by $16.1 billion. Those are the taxpayers who anchor income tax receipts in a state where the top 1 percent of earners contribute nearly half of all personal income tax revenue. As they leave, the structural deficit grows. As the structural deficit grows, taxes rise. As taxes rise, more of them leave.

The most recent Census Bureau estimate showed Los Angeles County alone shed nearly 54,000 residents between July 2024 and July 2025 — the largest single-year numeric decline of any county in the United States. The primary destination for departing Californians is Texas, followed by Florida, Nevada, and Arizona — states Newsom has repeatedly mocked in public statements.

A $267 million Medicare fraud ring operated inside California’s hospice system. House Oversight sent Newsom a formal investigation letter.

On March 23, 2026, the U.S. House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform — chaired by Rep. James Comer — sent a formal letter to Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) demanding documents related to the state’s oversight of its federally funded hospice programs. The letter cited a “well-documented history of fraud” and was co-signed by two dozen Republican members of Congress.

The underlying crisis is substantial. California Attorney General Rob Bonta announced charges against 21 suspects in a hospice fraud ring responsible for $267 million in fraudulent Medi-Cal billing. The scheme involved purchasing stolen personal identifying information from the dark web, enrolling those identities in Medi-Cal, purchasing hospice companies through straw owners, and billing for hospice services for patients who did not exist. Separately, federal prosecutors in Los Angeles unsealed charges against 15 additional individuals tied to a $60 million Medicare fraud scheme. Over 280 hospice licenses have been revoked across the state in the past two years. Three hundred more providers remain under active investigation.

“California has a well-documented history of fraud in its hospice programs, and California taxpayers and hospice patients deserve answers.”

House Oversight Committee Letter to Gov. Newsom (D-CA) — March 23, 2026

The hospice fraud crisis is not a surprise event that blindsided state regulators. CalMatters documented in April 2026 that the problem had been visible and growing for years before mass enforcement actions began — and that California’s regulatory structure allowed predatory actors to obtain hospice licenses, bill Medicare and Medi-Cal for services never rendered, and operate for extended periods before any license was revoked. The moratorium on new hospice licenses was not imposed until the fraud had already cost taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars. It has now been extended through January 2027.

All statistics in this article are sourced to primary government documents (California LAO, HUD AHAR, IRS SOI Migration Data, AAA), official legislative records (House Oversight Committee letter, California AG press releases), and institutional news outlets that cite those primary documents. Every dollar figure and population count traces to a named primary source. No statistics were estimated or inferred by this publication.

1. Daily Caller — Gavin Newsom Tees Up For Likely Presidential Run By Belittling Entire Region Of Country (May 8, 2026)
2. Townhall — Gavin Newsom Proves He's Historically Illiterate With This Hot Take on Tennessee's New Congressional Map (May 8, 2026)
3. Twitchy — Gavin Newsom Given Some Breaking News After His Rant About Redistricting (May 8, 2026)
4. CNN Politics — Gavin Newsom discusses a potential 2028 matchup with Kamala Harris (Feb 22, 2026)
5. Fox News — Newsom stop in key presidential primary state sparks more 2028 speculation (Feb 2026)
6. NBC News — Gavin Newsom says he'd be 'lying' if he denied plans to consider a presidential run (2025)
7. California Legislative Analyst's Office — The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook (LAO Report)
8. California Legislative Analyst's Office — The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget
9. CalMatters — Newsom confronts $18 billion deficit despite higher revenues (Nov 2025)
10. NPR — California faces record $68 billion budget deficit, analyst says (Dec 8, 2023)
11. HUD — 2024 Annual Homelessness Assessment Report (AHAR), Part 1 — Point-in-Time Count
12. CalMatters — New homelessness data: How does California compare to the rest of the country? (Jan 2025)
13. AAA Fuel Prices — California Average Gas Prices (accessed May 2026)
14. AAA — State Gas Price Averages (national comparison, accessed May 2026)
15. IRS — SOI Tax Stats: Migration Data (individual tax return address changes, Filing Years 1991–2023)
16. Tax Foundation — How Do Taxes Affect Interstate Migration? (2024 analysis using IRS data)
17. U.S. House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform — Oversight Committee Launches Investigation Into Rampant Taxpayer Fraud in California Hospice Programs (Mar 23, 2026)
18. House Oversight Letter to Gov. Newsom Re: Hospice Fraud (Mar 23, 2026)
19. California AG — Attorney General Bonta Dismantles Los Angeles Hospice Fraud Ring Responsible for $267 Million in Fraud
20. CalMatters — California's hospice fraud crisis is flourishing in plain sight (Apr 2026)