They Raised Taxes. Everyone Left.
Now Hochul Is Begging Them to Come Back.

IRS migration data shows California lost $11.9 billion in adjusted gross income in a single year. New York lost $9.9 billion. Illinois lost $6 billion — and led the nation in rate of income loss. The money didn’t disappear. Florida picked up $20.65 billion. Texas picked up $5.5 billion. Palm Beach County alone is now the #1 AGI-gaining county in the United States. Governor Hochul’s response: ask wealthy exiles to visit Florida and “see who you can bring back home.”

$11.9 Billion Out of California. $20.65 Billion Into Florida. These Are Tax Returns, Not Projections.

Every year, the Internal Revenue Service publishes Statistics of Income migration data — tax returns filed by people who moved between states, showing how much adjusted gross income (AGI) moved with them. It is the most complete, most reliable measurement of wealth migration in the United States. There is no survey error. The money either filed a return at a new address or it didn’t.

The 2022–2023 IRS data — the most recent complete filing year — shows California lost a net 100,397 tax-filing households and $11.9 billion in AGI to domestic out-migration. New York lost 71,987 households and $9.9 billion. Illinois lost 28,609 households and $6 billion — and the Illinois Policy Institute analysis shows Illinois led the nation in rate of income loss: more than $11 per $1,000 of total state income walked out the door. The prior filing year (2021–2022) was worse: California lost $23.8 billion in a single year; New York lost $14.1 billion.

Illinois’s Departing Taxpayers Earn 33% More Than Its Arrivals

The story is not just about how many people left. It’s about which people left. In Illinois, IRS data shows the average adjusted gross income of those leaving is $104,432 — versus $78,784 for those moving in. A 33% income gap between departures and arrivals, every year, compounding. High earners — those reporting over $200,000 — are leaving at twice the rate of other income groups. Illinois led the nation in the rate of income erosion in 2023.

Massachusetts lost approximately 182,000 residents to domestic out-migration over five years. The average AGI of those leaving Massachusetts: $141,672 — the highest departure income in the nation. Boston’s Greater Chamber of Commerce Foundation reports that 26% of residents aged 20–30 plan to leave within five years, with nearly half looking at the Southeast or Southwest.

New York City lost approximately 114,000 more domestic residents than it gained in 2025. NYC’s international migration simultaneously dropped 70% — the immigration supplementing its population decline is drying up. New Jersey’s effective property tax rate of 2.23% is the highest in the nation; combined with a top state income tax rate of 10.75%, the state lost 19,370 net households and $2.55 billion in AGI in 2022–2023 alone.

The money goes directly to Florida. Palm Beach County, Florida received a net $4.9 billion in AGI inflow in the 2022–2023 IRS year — making it the #1 AGI-gaining county in the entire United States. The average income of those moving into Palm Beach: $178,085. The average of those moving out: $98,527. Eight thousand New York City tax filers relocated to the Miami–Palm Beach corridor in 2022–2023, bringing $1.54 billion in AGI with them.

California: 13.3%. Florida: 0%. The Math Isn’t Hard.

The states people are leaving uniformly have the nation’s highest income tax rates. California’s top marginal rate is 13.3% — the highest in the country. New York State reaches 10.9%; New York City adds its own income tax, pushing the combined rate to 14.776% for city residents — the highest combined state-and-local income tax in the United States. New Jersey tops out at 10.75%. Illinois imposes a flat 4.95% income tax but pairs it with the second-highest property tax rate in the nation (2.07% effective rate).

The states absorbing the outflows — Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Nevada — have no state income tax. A $150,000 earner moving from New York City to Florida saves approximately $14,300 per year in eliminated income taxes alone. Over ten years: $143,000, not counting investment returns on that capital. Over a career, the arithmetic compounds into generational wealth.

Historically, high-tax advocates argued these states offered superior services justifying the premium. That case is increasingly hard to make when downtown San Francisco has a 28% office vacancy rate, Chicago’s downtown has a 28.6% vacancy, and New York City faces a $936 million budget hole from collapsing property tax revenue.

San Francisco: 28% Vacant. Chicago: 28.6%. Manhattan: 22.7%. All Record Highs.

Population loss compounds into commercial real estate collapse, which compounds into property tax revenue collapse, which compounds into budget deficits, which drive more tax increases, which drive more population loss. The economists have a name for this spiral. The governors don’t.

San Francisco’s overall office vacancy rate was 28.0% in Q1 2026 — down from its catastrophic 35.1% peak in Q2 2025 but still more than four times the pre-pandemic rate. The Westfield SF Centre, formerly the flagship downtown mall, officially closed January 24, 2026, after reaching 95% vacancy. The city faces a $936 million budget deficit driven partly by declining property tax revenue: the city received 9,000 property tax appeals in 2025 — a 25-year record — and is projected to lose $150–200 million annually in property taxes by 2028.

Chicago’s downtown office market hit a record 28.6% vacancy in Q1 2026. The suburbs are worse: 33.4% — the 21st consecutive quarter of record highs. Among the departures: Boeing and Citadel, two of the city’s highest-profile corporate anchors. Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) signed the largest budget in Illinois history for FY2025 — $53.1 billion, up $15 billion since he took office — adding $1.1 billion in new taxes. Illinois has had ten consecutive years of net population decline.

Manhattan’s overall office vacancy reached 22.7% in Q1 2026 — a record. Projected above 20% through the end of the year. Pre-pandemic: below 8%.

Hochul: “See Who You Can Bring Back Home.” Newsom: “Don’t Count Us Out.” Pritzker: Raised Taxes Anyway.

In March 2026, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY)appeared at Politico’s New York Agenda: Albany Summit and urged wealthy individuals to visit Palm Beach, Florida — specifically to “see who you can bring back home, because our tax base has been eroded.” She told remaining millionaires that they are needed to “support the generous social programs.” Hochul simultaneously extended higher taxes on wealthy individuals and corporations, the policy accelerating the very exodus she was asking people to reverse.

“Our tax base has been eroded. See who you can bring back home, because our tax base has been eroded.”

Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) · Politico Albany Summit · March 2026 · addressing wealthy New Yorkers who fled to Florida

The contrast with 2022 is stark. While campaigning for governor, Hochul told Republicans they didn’t belong in New York and should leave — to Florida specifically. In March 2026, four years later, she flew to Palm Beach to beg those same people to come back and fund her budget. The people she told to jump on a bus are now her tax base.

“Just jump on a bus and head down to Florida, where you belong, OK? Get out of town because you don't represent our values.”

Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) · October 2022 · campaign remarks addressing Republican voters · reported by Fox News columnist Karol Markowicz

“If you are not one of us, you have no place in the state of New York.”

Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) · January 2014 · public remarks addressing conservative and pro-life New Yorkers · the pattern predates Hochul

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), in an interview on Fox’s Hannity, disputed the exodus narrative: “Per capita, more Floridians move to California than California is moving to Florida.” California’s Census Bureau domestic out-migration for 2025 was 239,575 — the largest of any state in the nation. The IRS data is not a matter of narrative; it is a matter of tax filings.

Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL)signed the largest budget in Illinois state history despite ten consecutive years of population loss. A 2025 survey found 51% of Illinois voters want to leave the state; high taxes were cited as the #1 reason. The Illinois Policy Institute gives Pritzker an “F” on economy, taxes, and education in its governor scorecard.

Rather than reduce taxes, at least ten states led by Democrats are now exploring exit taxes — provisions designed to extract wealth from people who leave. California’s Assembly Bill 259 proposes a tax on worldwide net worth with an exit provision that would follow former residents for up to ten years after they leave the state. NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani (D)has proposed a 2% income tax hike on millionaires — who already face a combined state-and-city rate of 14.776%. Six California billionaires left before the proposed January 1, 2026 residency cutoff, taking an estimated $27 billion in potential taxable value with them. The state’s response is to extend its taxing authority across state lines rather than reduce the tax that caused the departure.

The U-Haul 2025 Growth Index — measuring net one-way truck rentals, a real-time behavioral indicator — ranked Texas #1 inbound for the seventh time in ten years. Florida: #2. North Carolina: #3. Tennessee: #4. California ranked dead last — for the sixth consecutive year. Also in the bottom five: Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, and Illinois.

The IRS data, the Census data, the U-Haul data, the office vacancy numbers, the budget deficits, the property tax appeals — they are all measuring the same phenomenon from different angles. People leave when it costs too much to stay. The governors who raised the costs are now asking the people who left to come back and pay them again. Some are considering laws to make it harder to leave.