Kalshi Is Talking to a $40 Billion Valuation. A Law Professor Calls It “Staggering.”
- $40 Billion the valuation Kalshi is reportedly seeking in talks with Sequoia and Wellington Management for a $750 million raise — CoinDesk / The Information, Aug. 13, 2026
- $22 Billion Kalshi's prior valuation, set just three months earlier in its May 2026 Series F round — CoinDesk, May 7, 2026
- $36 Billion the damages New York is seeking from Kalshi in a lawsuit alleging it operates as an unlicensed gambling business — NY Attorney General, July 31, 2026
- 2nd Time Ever the CFTC has invoked emergency authority to override a state's objection and keep a registrant operating — it did so for Kalshi in New York on Aug. 11, 2026 — CFTC press release 9281-26
Kalshi is reportedly in advanced talks with Sequoia and Wellington Management for a $750 million raise that would value the prediction-market exchange at $40 billion — nearly double the $22 billion price tag it carried just three months ago. On Bloomberg Crypto on August 18, 2026, Vanderbilt law professor Yesha Yadav called the number “staggering.”
The valuation talk is unfolding alongside an escalating regulatory fight. New York sued Kalshi in late July for up to $36 billion, alleging it runs an unlicensed gambling operation. Days later, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission took the rare step of overriding the state, ordering Kalshi to keep operating in New York anyway.
Kalshi’s valuation has moved in a straight line upward through 2025 and 2026: roughly $2 billion in June 2025, $5 billion by October, $11 billion by December, and $22 billion at its May 2026 Series F, led by Coatue with participation from Morgan Stanley, Sequoia, and a16z. The reported $40 billion figure, if it closes, would nearly double that in three months. Kalshi’s annualized revenue reportedly hit roughly $4 billion in July 2026, up from about $2 billion two months earlier — though which figure serves as the right baseline changes the resulting revenue multiple considerably.
Kalshi operates as a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-designated contract market — the same federal status held by CME Group — which lets it list “event contracts” nationwide without state-by-state gambling licenses. Roughly 65 to 90 percent of its trading volume, depending on the measure, comes from sports-outcome contracts: precisely the category state regulators argue looks the most like traditional sports betting.
New York Attorney General Letitia James (D-NY), joined by Governor Kathy Hochul (D-NY), sued Kalshi on July 31, 2026: “No matter what they call themselves, prediction markets like Kalshi are gambling platforms, plain and simple.” Kalshi’s response was blunt: “States can’t just shut down a federally licensed exchange.”
“Congress did not intend for derivatives exchanges to be regulated under a patchwork of state gaming laws... New York has no business regulating these interstate financial markets.”
Michael S. Selig, CFTC Chairman, Aug. 11, 2026
Eleven days after New York’s suit, the CFTC invoked emergency authority — used only once before, against Michigan — to order Kalshi to keep operating in New York over the state’s objection. Separately, the CFTC has sued Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois to defend its exclusive jurisdiction, while a federal appeals court sided with Kalshi against New Jersey’s gambling laws in April.
Yadav’s “staggering” comment isn’t her only note of caution on the sector. She has separately flagged governance gaps at prediction-market platforms: “The fact that one doesn’t have clarity about the underlying governance is super problematic.”
Kalshi has surpassed $4 billion in annualized revenue, doubled from just two months ago, as it seeks fresh funding at a $40 billion valuation — the company has also been spending heavily on marketing and faces potential state taxes in some of its biggest markets.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour has said an IPO is under consideration but not planned for 2026, with 2027 the more likely target. Whether the $40 billion round closes at that price, or at all, will depend partly on how the state lawsuits and the CME Group’s own separate suit against the CFTC’s approval of Kalshi’s newer “perpetual futures” products play out in the coming months.
Kalshi is reportedly in talks for a $750 million raise at a $40 billion valuation, nearly double its May 2026 price tag, on the strength of roughly $4 billion in annualized revenue. Vanderbilt’s Yesha Yadav calls the figure “staggering.” The talks come as New York sues Kalshi for up to $36 billion over its gambling-law status, and the CFTC has twice in its history invoked emergency authority to keep a registrant operating over a state’s objection — once for Kalshi in New York this August. Roughly two-thirds to nine-tenths of Kalshi’s volume comes from sports contracts, the exact category driving the state-level fights.
