Economy.
The numbers don’t lie.
Inflation, jobs, wages, housing, taxes, and the cost of living. Sourced data and accountability reporting on the economic decisions that shape American life. Named officials. Primary documents. Dated facts.
Disney, the Super Bowl, and a $400 Babysitter — All on the Campaign Card
POLITICO's review of Sen. Ruben Gallego's (D-AZ) FEC filings shows Super Bowl tickets, Disney trips, and $18,000+ in child-care reimbursements charged to campaign and PAC accounts. Mostly legal — but where's the line between a campaign expense and a lifestyle subsidy?
The Housing Squeeze Falls Hardest on Gen Z
67% of Gen Z struggle with housing costs vs. 53% of millennials and 36% of boomers. It takes ~$111,000 to afford a typical home against ~$86,000 in income — and first-time buyers are at a record-low 21%.
A $104,200 Salary Is Now "Low Income" in California
Orange County's 2026 limit for a one-person household hit $104,200 — above the county's median income, and four Bay Area counties sit in the same six-figure range. The state's own math, measuring its cost-of-living crisis.
June 2026 Social Security: Who Gets Paid June 24 — and Why
June 2026 Social Security checks land on three Wednesdays by birth date, with the final round June 24. A plain-language guide to the schedule and the 2.8% COLA.
Banks Flagged $2.5 Billion in Payroll Tax Fraud in 2025. Treasury Says Illegal Hiring Schemes Built It.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (R) says banks filed $2.5B in suspicious-activity reports in 2025 tied to illegal-employment payroll fraud. A FinCEN advisory backed by the IRS, FDIC, OCC and NCUA gives banks 18 red flags for shell-company labor-broker schemes.
In Nearly Every State, Immigrant Households Use Welfare at Substantially Higher Rates
A CIS analysis of Census data finds a ~19-point household welfare-use gap (47% vs. 28%). The Cato Institute, using the same data per capita, reaches the opposite conclusion. We lay out what each measure captures — and why the debate needs both.
Albany Found a Villain for Your Electric Bill. It Picked the Wrong One.
New York passed the nation's first data-center moratorium, blaming AI for soaring bills. The real drivers — the CLCPA, the Indian Point closure, and transmission bottlenecks — are Albany's own.
Fiscal Doomsday: $193.6 Trillion in Unfunded Medicare and Social Security Promises.
Treasury's FY2025 Financial Report puts the combined infinite-horizon shortfall at $193.6T ($88.2T over 75 years). The Social Security and Medicare trust funds both hit insolvency in 2033 — triggering a ~23% automatic benefit cut. The 2025 OBBBA accelerated it. Tax-the-rich math doesn't close the gap; the 'no cuts' pledge locks in the cliff.
The Numbers We Argue About: What BLS Jobs Data Really Shows.
The quits rate is back to a normal 2.0% — the 'Great Resignation' became the 'Great Stay.' But the same BLS posted a record -911,000 benchmark revision and had its chief fired by Trump for allegedly 'rigging' the numbers. New York lags the nation at 4.6%. A data-integrity story, not a partisan one.
American Energy Dominance Depends on Permitting Reform. Congress Hasn't Delivered.
Williams CEO Chad Zamarin argues the AI power surge and 'energy dominance' agenda are bottlenecked by a NEPA process that averages 4.5 years. The bipartisan SPEED Act passed the House 221–196 in December but stalls in the Senate; the Manchin-Barrasso reform died in 2024. Data centers could consume up to 12% of US electricity by 2028.
California Just Bricked Its Own Fuel Supply. The Replacement Will Come From Asia.
Phillips 66 idled its 147K-bpd LA refinery in Q4 2025. Valero shutters its 145K-bpd Benicia plant by April 2026. 17-20% of California's refining capacity gone by mid-2026. USC Marshall's Michael Mische projects $8.43/gallon by year-end. Residential electricity already ~2× national. EIA forecasts CA increasingly dependent on Asian imports — tankers from suppliers with weaker environmental standards than the rules California enacted to avoid that outcome. CARB just delayed enforcement of the refinery 'excess profit' penalty to 2030.
Oklahoma's Jake Merrick (R) Is Running for Governor on Killing the H-1B Program. He's One of Nine.
OK state Sen. Jake Merrick (R) is running for OK governor on ending H-1B. 9-candidate field. Trump's Jan 2026 $100K H-1B fee floor. 85,000 cap, Amazon #1 sponsor (13,205 LCAs 2024). EPI: 17-34% wage gap.
California Has Passed a Dozen Housing Bills. The Median Home Price Is Still $869,000.
May 25, 2026 — California's median home price reached $869,000 per California Association of Realtors data, even after Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) signed SB 9 (ADUs and duplexes by-right), SB 10 (transit-corridor upzoning), AB 2011 (streamlined affordable multifamily), and the YIMBY Law effective January 2024. California issued approximately 103,000 building permits in 2024 against a projected need of 180,000 units per year — a 43% shortfall. Proposition 13's property-tax freeze remains the structural barrier mainstream housing politics refuses to confront. CAR projects a 3.8% decline in home sales for 2026.
The IMF Predicted Trump's Tariffs Would Wreck the Global Economy. Then It Quietly Started Upgrading Its Forecasts.
October 14, 2025 — WaPo: 'Global economy shrugs off Trump tariffs, at least for now, IMF says.' IMF World Economic Outlook forecast trajectory: April 2025 doom → July 2025 'faster than expected' → October 2025 3.2%/3.1% (+0.2pp upgrade) → January 2026 3.3%/3.2% (+0.2pp upgrade) → April 2026 3.1% (modest downgrade attributed to Iran/Hormuz oil shock, NOT tariffs). Treasury Sec Scott Bessent (R) and Commerce Sec Howard Lutnick (R) treat the trajectory as institutional vindication. IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas caveats ('temporary factors fading'). $76.4B U.S. tariff revenue in Year 1.
India Cut Its Own Tariffs to Survive Trump's 50% Wall. Now the $58B US-India Deficit Is Riding on Modi's Russian-Oil Pledge.
May 24, 2026 — Indian PM Narendra Modi (BJP) used the February 1, 2026 Union Budget — delivered by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman (BJP) — to slash tariffs on capital goods, lithium-ion battery inputs, and critical minerals. The cuts were a direct domestic response to President Trump (R)'s 50% tariffs on Indian goods, which peaked August 27, 2025 (25% reciprocal + 25% Russian-crude penalty). The February 2, 2026 framework: Trump cuts the reciprocal tariff to 18% in exchange for Modi pledging $500 billion+ in U.S. energy, technology, and agriculture purchases plus a Russian-oil cut (1.2M → 800K barrels per day, Jan-Mar 2026 trajectory). The bilateral $58.2B U.S.-India goods deficit (+27.1% YoY 2025) is now structurally subject to Modi delivering. Commerce Sec Howard Lutnick (R) made a surprise February 26 New Delhi trip; USTR Jamieson Greer (R) issued the joint statement.
Trump EPA Rescinds Biden's $2.4B/yr HFC Refrigerant Rule, Slashing Costs for Supermarkets and Homeowners
EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin rescinded Biden's HFC Technology Transitions Rule (88 FR 73098), eliminating a regulation projected to cost $2.4 billion per year. The Biden rule required grocery chains to swap refrigerants — a conversion estimated at $800K–$1.5M per supermarket location. AHRI projected $900M/yr in supermarket savings from repeal; additional savings for homeowners forced to retrofit AC systems on federally-mandated timelines. Zeldin: 'once again, we are saving hardworking Americans money.' The AIM Act (Trump first-term, Dec 27 2020, bipartisan) remains intact — it phases down HFC production volumes. What changed is Biden's specific technology-transition mandate layered on top.
Sen. Katie Britt Wants Every U.S. Employer to Use E-Verify. Right Now, 14% Do.
May 21, 2026 — Sen. Katie Britt (R-AL) introduces the Mandatory E-Verify Act of 2026 with 8 Republican cosponsors: Cotton (R-AR), Budd (R-NC), Blackburn (R-TN), Graham (R-SC), Lankford (R-OK), Tuberville (R-AL), Capito (R-WV), Cruz (R-TX). Grassley (R-IA, Judiciary Chair) leads the companion S.1151 separately. Framing number: 14% of U.S. employers voluntarily use E-Verify today. 9.7M unauthorized immigrant workers in the U.S. workforce per Pew (Aug 2025). 11 states already mandate. SCOTUS settled federal preemption in Chamber of Commerce v. Whiting (2011). Coalition gap: Farm Bureau opposes without H-2A reform; Cato cites 760,000 legal workers harmed by E-Verify errors. Endorsements: Heritage, NICE, NumbersUSA, FAIR, Immigration Accountability Project. DHS Sec. Markwayne Mullin (R, confirmed March 23, 2026), USCIS Director Joseph Edlow, Border Czar Tom Homan.
The CEO Is Testifying. The Legal Team Took the Fifth 146 Times — and ActBlue's Own Lawyers Wrote the Memo.
May 18, 2026 — ActBlue CEO Regina Wallace-Jones agreed in mid-May to testify publicly before the U.S. House Committee on Administration on June 10, 2026. Per the April 2026 joint staff report 'Fraud on ActBlue, Part II,' five ActBlue legal-team employees (Hurwitz, Ting, Ahmad, and two others) invoked the Fifth Amendment a combined 146 times across depositions held July-December 2025. Three House R chairs lead: Steil (Admin), Jordan (Judiciary), Comer (Oversight). Covington & Burling memos to the ActBlue board (early 2025, surfaced via NYT April 2 2026) warned of 'substantial risk that some of the funds received were impermissible contributions from foreign nationals' — and that Apple Pay / PayPal / Venmo donors were never prompted for passport info. AG Pam Bondi (R) directed probe via April 24 2025 presidential memorandum. Texas AG Paxton (R) civil suit filed April 20 2026. ActBlue: foreign contributions 'less than 1%' of platform volume.
Five Years, Four Federal Courts, One Settled Suit — USDA Ends Race-Based Farm Eligibility.
May 18, 2026 — Trump USDA under Secretary Brooke Rollins (R) settled Faust v. Rollins (E.D. Wis., 1:25-cv-00854) closing the last live litigation over race- and sex-based eligibility in USDA programs. Plaintiff Adam Faust, the Wisconsin dairy farmer who beat the Biden USDA's $4B Section 1005 race-based debt relief in 2021, beats the residual preferences in 2026. Programs affected: Dairy Margin Coverage admin fee, FSA Loan Guarantee Program, EQIP. Broader rollback: 13 USDA programs covered by July 10, 2025 final rule (Fed. Reg. 2025-12877). Former Sec. Vilsack (D): 'I remain proud of the work we did.' WILL Deputy Counsel Dan Lennington: 'Those shameful days are now behind us.'
RFK Jr. Says Military Food Costs Dropped $18.50 to $10 Per Soldier — Without a Pentagon Audit Yet.
HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Breitbart's Alex Marlow Show, May 16, 2026: 'The cost that the Pentagon allocated and was being spent was $18.50 per day per soldier. We are now feeding them for $10 a day.' A 46% reduction. Implementation: Army's Holistic Health and Fitness program + Robert Irvine Foundation pilot 42 Bistro at Fort Hood (opened Feb 18, 2026), scaling 5 → 20 bases. Caveat: Kennedy's number is his on-air claim — no Pentagon-published audit yet. Pre-reform context that survives scrutiny: $151M of $225M deducted from soldiers' food allowance was diverted to non-meal expenses (Stars & Stripes, Feb 2025).
Even Buffett's Empire Says the Math Doesn't Work — Why Mortgage Rates Can't Fall Far Enough.
Fortune Oct 27, 2025: Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices and Zillow data analyst Anushna Prakash say mortgage rates can't fall far enough to fix U.S. home affordability. Zillow math needs 4.43%; Freddie Mac PMMS May 14, 2026 is at 6.36%. A 0% rate wouldn't fix NYC, LA, Miami, SF, San Diego, or San Jose — prices ran up 50%+ since 2020. Median first-time homebuyer: 40 years old (NAR — all-time high). Trump $200B mortgage-bond directive + Senate ROAD Act 89-10. Zillow + Berkshire: not enough.
Trump Says the China-Boeing Deal Could Be 750 Aircraft. Boeing Has Confirmed 200.
On Air Force One returning from Beijing, the President said Xi promised 'over 200 planes for Boeing, with a promise of 750 planes... if they do a good job with the 200.' Boeing's own statement the next morning kept the math conservative. The 200 are firm. The 550 are a verbal option with no signed contract, no CAAC confirmation, and no 8-K filing.
Trump's Asia Trade-Deals Week. Every Deal, Every Capital, Every Dollar Figure.
May 8–15, 2026 roundup: Treasury Sec Bessent in Tokyo with PM Takaichi (May 10–12). Trump-Xi Beijing summit May 14 — 200 Boeing 737 MAX (up to 750), soybeans, LNG, oil, October trade-truce extension. Plus the Q4 2025 base: Japan $550B, ROK $350B + Korean Air 103 Boeing/$36B, ASEAN frameworks for Vietnam (20%), Philippines (19%), Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand. Interactive bar chart of deal sizes + day-by-day timeline.
China Is Buying 200 Boeing 737 MAX Jets. The First Major Chinese Boeing Order in Nearly a Decade.
Beijing, May 14, 2026 — Trump announces China to purchase 200 Boeing 737 MAX (up to 750 with conditions), plus soybeans, oil, and LNG. First major China-Boeing order since 2017's $37B/300-aircraft deal. ~$20–25B customer revenue. Boeing stock fell 4% on the announcement: analysts had been positioned for 500+. October 2025 trade truce extended.
DOJ Says Apple Used an Illegal Monopoly to Lock In the iPhone. Two Years Later, the Case Is Now in Federal Discovery.
United States and Plaintiff States v. Apple Inc. — the DOJ + 16 state AG Section 2 Sherman Act case filed March 21, 2024 in the District of New Jersey — survived Apple's motion to dismiss on June 30, 2025. Three special discovery masters were appointed in early 2026. Five conduct theories on the table: messaging degradation, super-apps, cloud gaming, smartwatches, digital wallets. Judge Julien X. Neals presiding. Trial likely 2027–2028.
The Senate Voted 89-10 to Ban Wall Street From Buying Your House. The House Won't Hold a Vote.
The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act (H.R. 6644), authored by Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), bans purchases by any entity owning 350+ single-family homes. Trump signed an EO and demands a House vote. Rep. French Hill (R-AR) — $64,250 richer from MBA and NAHB PACs in March 2026 — is blocking the floor vote.
The Navy Just Asked Congress for 15 Nuclear Battleships. The Bill Could Reach $300 Billion.
The Navy's 30-year shipbuilding plan calls for 15 Trump-class BBG(X) battleships through 2055, with lead hull USS Defiant (BBG-1) ordered in FY28. Sec. of the Navy John Phelan named the class then was fired April 22 over allied-shipbuilding; Acting SecNav Hung Cao and CNO Adm. Daryl Caudle now run the line, with Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS) as lead authorizer. Navy says $17B/hull. CBO says up to $20.6B. China outbuilds U.S. shipyards 232 to 1.
Manhattan and Brooklyn Rents Just Hit an All-Time High. Again.
Corcoran 2026 NYC Rental Market Report: Manhattan stuck at a record $5,000 median for the second straight month; Brooklyn at $4,150 in March, all-time high of $4,296 in February. Realtor.com Q1: Manhattan asking rent $4,878 (+8.3% YoY); rent gap of $1,761/mo. 52% of NYC renters now rent-burdened. After 421-a expired in 2022, multifamily permit filings collapsed 62%. City of Yes scaled down from 108k to 80k units. Mamdani (D), Adams (D), Hochul (D), Democratic supermajorities at City Hall and Albany.
U.S.-Sanctioned Chinese Miners Control 6% of Nicaragua. They Seized an $80M American Plant. Then Shipped the Gold to Miami.
La Prensa May 11 territorial analysis on the U.S. Treasury's April 16 OFAC designations: ~7,150 km² of Nicaragua under sanctioned CCP-linked mining firms. Fundación del Río: 8.5% of the country in broader Chinese miner hands. Two of Ortega's sons sanctioned. $80M U.S./U.K. plant seized September 2025; $25.6M in Nicaraguan gold shipped to Miami via sanctioned firms.
Trump Cut U.S. Tariffs on India From 50% to 18%. Modi Agreed to Stop Buying Russian Oil and Bring Tariffs on American Goods to Zero.
A bilateral interim trade agreement announced February 2, 2026 immediately slashed U.S. tariffs on Indian imports — and extracted a geopolitical commitment: India stops purchasing Russian oil. The U.S. Court of International Trade later ruled the 10% universal IEEPA tariff illegal; the White House is appealing.
The Government Mailed $207 Million in Medicaid Payments to Dead People. For the 18th Time Since 2007.
The HHS Inspector General's 18th audit since 2007 found $207.5 million in Medicaid payments to deceased enrollees — 99 of 100 sampled payments improper. CMS under Xavier Becerra (D) and Chiquita Brooks-LaSure (D) received repeated findings with zero systemic fixes. Cumulative waste: $289 million.
Trump Orders $200B in Mortgage Bonds. Rates Drop to 5.99% the Next Day.
On January 8, 2026, President Trump directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities to push the 30-year fixed rate below 6%. FHFA Director Bill Pulte confirmed the directive. By January 9, Freddie Mac's survey recorded 5.99% — the first sub-6% rate since early 2023.
115,000 Jobs. Iran Shuts Hormuz. America Keeps Hiring.
BLS April 2026 Employment Situation: +115,000 nonfarm payrolls — nearly double the 62,000 consensus forecast. Unemployment held at 4.3%. Labor force participation: 61.8%. Healthcare led (+37K), followed by Transport (+30K), Retail (+22K). Federal government shed 9,000. National average gasoline above $4.50.
How Much Washington Overpays — And How Often It Gets Caught
$186 billion in FY 2025 federal improper payments (GAO-26-108694, April 23, 2026). $300B+ in pandemic PPP/EIDL/UI fraud. $5T pandemic relief overseen by PRAC. April 2026 SBA enforcement: 562,000 fraudulent loans / $22B sent to Treasury for collections. A primary-source record from GAO, agency Inspectors General, PRAC, and the Justice Department.
$7.5 Billion. 384 Charger Stations to Show for It.
Twelve states adopted California's 2035 ban on new gas cars. Six major automakers walked back their EV targets. The federal charger network delivered fewer than 400 stations in four and a half years. Here is the data, sourced.
Energy, Oil & The Price of Independence
What four U.S. presidents actually did on energy — and what it actually cost at the pump. WTI, Brent, Henry Hub, retail gasoline, crude production, and net imports — all live from EIA. Primary sources, no spin.
Every statistic on this page traces to a primary source: BLS, BEA, FRED, Census Bureau, CBO, GAO, or a named government filing. Dollar figures are inflation-adjusted where noted. Charts show the methodology panel on hover. If we can’t source a figure, we don’t publish it.