Six Democrats Want to Be California’s Next Governor. All Six Inherited the Housing Crisis Their Party Built.
California has been governed by a Democratic supermajority at every level since 2011. Its governor, its legislature, its insurance commissioner — all Democrats, for a decade and a half. The state now has the lowest rental vacancy rate ever recorded, a median home price more than twice the national average, and a wildfire insurance market so broken that 684,000 homes and businesses have been pushed onto the state’s insurer of last resort. Six Democrats are now running for governor, each promising to fix what Democratic governance built.
The numbers are not ambiguous. California is 3 million homes short statewide, per UCLA Anderson Forecast. Only 22% of California homebuyers can afford the median-priced single-family home as of Q1 2026 — the lowest affordability figure in state history. The median statewide two-bedroom rent is $2,700 per month; in San Francisco it exceeds $4,000. More than 3 million California households spend at least 30% of their income on rent; more than 1.5 million spend over half.
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) promised 3.5 million new homes by 2025. California produced roughly 100,000 to 120,000 per year. He spent $27 billion on housing and homelessness with no public accountability mechanism. He took $411,600from the California Apartment Association while campaigning against ballot measures that would have expanded rent control. In the final year of his term, he issued “final warnings” to 15 cities for violating housing laws — after seven years of non-enforcement. He leaves office in January 2027 with the crisis significantly worse than when he entered.
- 3 millionhomesCalifornia is short statewide— UCLA Anderson Forecast
- 22%affordabilityshare of CA buyers who can afford the median-priced single-family home, Q1 2026— CA Association of Realtors
- $3.8BHomekeyNewsom's flagship housing program spend — 1 in 5 promised homes still unfinished— CalMatters investigation, May 2026
- 684,000+FAIR Planhomes and businesses on the state's insurer of last resort — up 152% since September 2022— CA Dept. of Insurance
California’s housing market has deteriorated across every metric simultaneously. The vacancy rate of 3.6% is the lowest ever recorded in the state. The median mid-tier home price of $775,000 is more than twice the U.S. average, per the Legislative Analyst’s Office Q1 2026 report. Californians who relocate to another state save an average of $672 per month on housing costs alone, according to Fox Business analysis of Census Bureau migration data.
Construction has not responded. In the first half of 2025, California issued just 49,400 building permits — the lowest since 2014, excluding the pandemic lockdown years, per the Davis Vanguard analysis of state permit data. Enterprise Community Partners estimates 40,000 fully entitled affordable units — legally approved and permitted — are stuck in financing limbo, unable to break ground.
Overlaid on the affordability crisis is an insurance collapse. Since 2021, private insurers have canceled approximately 400,000 policies statewide. The January 2025 Palisades and Eaton fires destroyed 16,251 structures and generated an estimated $40 billion in insured losses— the costliest wildfire disaster in U.S. history. The FAIR Plan, the state’s insurer of last resort, bore the brunt: its exposure has grown 152% since September 2022.
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) — governor since 2019; promised 3.5 million new homes by 2025 during his 2017 lieutenant-governor campaign; actual pace never exceeded ~120,000 units per year. Received $411,600 from the California Apartment Association between 2018 and 2024. Campaigned against Prop 33 (2024) and Prop 21 (2020), both of which would have expanded rent control. Term-limited; leaves office January 2027.
Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara (D-CA) — elected 2018, re-elected 2022. The New York Times reported he struck a secret deal with major insurers. More than 70% of LA wildfire survivors report delayed or denied claims. Democratic legislators and consumer advocates have called for his resignation.
State Legislature (Democratic supermajority) — Democrats have held a supermajority in both chambers since 2018 and a working majority since 2011. The legislature killed a Homekey audit bill in January 2025. CEQA reform stalled for decades; SB 79 (transit-oriented housing) finally passed in October 2025 — after the crisis was already documented in 15 years of audits.
Gov. Newsom’s Homekey program was designed to convert hotels, motels, and commercial buildings into permanent supportive housing. It received $3.8 billion in state funding. CalMatters filed 100 public records requests to audit the program. What they found: roughly 1 in 5 promised homes — approximately 3,000 units — remain unfinished. More than 2,000 people are still living in temporary housing. At least 10 projects totaling 500+ units were canceled outright. Shangri-La Industries, which received $115 million in Homekey contracts, allegedly diverted millions for personal enrichment — a case now in litigation. The California legislature killed a bill to audit the program in January 2025.
In March 2026, with roughly nine months left in his term, Newsom issued “final warnings” to 15 California cities for violating state housing production laws. The enforcement action was lauded in some housing circles — but critics noted it came after seven years of documented non-enforcement, and that Newsom had the statutory authority to act in 2019. The warning letters themselves carry no immediate legal penalty; cities have months to respond.
The New York Times reported that Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara (D-CA) struck a secret deal with major insurers in which the state agreed to allow rate increases — in exchange for the insurers agreeing to stay in the California market. The deal was not publicly disclosed when it was made. A KQED survey of January 2025 wildfire survivors found that more than 70% reported delayed or denied claims. Consumer Watchdog, Democratic legislators including Assemblymember Alex Lee, and former Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones have all called for Lara to resign. Lara has refused.
The structural problem: Insurance Prop 103 (1988) required prior state approval for any rate increase. Insurers faced with sharply higher wildfire exposure refused to seek approval — the process is slow and politically perilous — and simply exited. The Palisades and Eaton fires in January 2025 accelerated the exits and overwhelmed the FAIR Plan, which was never designed to insure 684,000 policies.
“I'm on the un-FAIR plan. If my house burns down, I won't be able to rebuild it.”
Antonio Villaraigosa (D), candidate for governor · KQED interview · 2026
Every candidate in the 2026 Democratic primary for governor has a housing and insurance platform. Most of them agree on the one law that actually passed: SB 79, the transit-oriented housing bill signed in October 2025, which requires cities to allow higher-density development near transit hubs. The disagreements are on rent control, insurance reform, and how aggressively to override local zoning. Read their positions:
- ·Opposes rent caps — says they trap tenants in units and shrink supply
- ·Backs modular construction and factory-built homes to slash costs
- ·Faster utility hookups and state building-code reform
- ·Endorsed SB 79 (transit-oriented housing, signed Oct. 2025)
- ·Freeze insurance rates and utility rates temporarily
- ·90-day permit mandate: cities must decide within 90 days or permit is auto-approved
- ·Supports rent caps; endorsed SB 79
- ·"1 million affordable homes" pledge over his term
- ·Build on public lands and underused state property
- ·Raise commercial property taxes to fund housing (partial Prop 13 reform)
- ·Endorsed by YIMBY Action; backed SB 79
- ·Supports SB 79 and transit-oriented density
- ·Temporary rent caps during wildfire recovery period
- ·Personal stakes: on the state FAIR Plan himself
"I'm on the un-FAIR plan. If my house burns down, I won't be able to rebuild it." — Villaraigosa, KQED interview, 2026
- ·2 million affordable homes built on school-district surplus land
- ·Expand CalHome and Dream For All down-payment programs
- ·Backs rent caps
- ·Aggressive deregulation: eliminate zoning barriers statewide
- ·Cap developer impact fees that inflate unit costs
- ·Buy older affordable housing stock before it flips to market rate
I support SB 79 — building housing near transit is basic common sense. California has spent too long saying no. We need to build more, faster, and stop letting process be the enemy of progress.
California's housing crisis isn't a mystery — it's a policy failure. I'm running for governor to build the homes we need and make them affordable. That means using public land, raising commercial property taxes under Prop 13, and getting serious about supply.
California’s housing crisis is not a natural disaster. It was constructed, incrementally, through a series of policy choices — most of them made decades ago, most of them now extremely difficult to reverse:
Prop 13 capped property tax increases at 1% of assessed value plus 2% annual growth. Homeowners who bought decades ago pay a fraction of the market-rate taxes their neighbors pay. Cities, unable to count on property taxes from long-held residential parcels, have systematically prioritized commercial development (which generates sales tax revenue) over residential. That distortion has compounded for 46 years. Every candidate who mentions Prop 13 reform does so cautiously — it is politically radioactive, protected by a 2/3 supermajority legislative requirement.
The California Environmental Quality Act (1970) was written to block industrial pollution. For decades it has been used by neighborhood groups, competitor businesses, and labor unions to block or delay housing projects with legal challenges. A single challenger can cost a developer years of litigation and millions in legal fees — enough to kill a marginal project. California partially reformed CEQA in 2025 through SB 79, but significant reform has been rejected by the Democratic-controlled legislature for two decades under sustained lobbying from labor unions and homeowner groups.
Costa-Hawkins prohibits cities from applying rent control to buildings constructed after 1995 and to single-family homes. Proposition 33 (2024), which would have repealed Costa-Hawkins and allowed cities to expand rent control to all housing, lost 60% to 40% on the November 2024 ballot. Gov. Newsom campaigned against it. The California Apartment Association, which donated $411,600 to Newsom, spent heavily against the measure. Prop 21 (2020), a similar effort, also lost. Renters in post-1995 buildings have no local rent control protection.
Prop 103 requires insurers to seek prior approval from the Department of Insurance before raising rates. The approval process is slow, public, and politically charged — insurers must justify every premium increase in open proceedings where consumer groups can intervene. As wildfire risk (and reinsurance costs) spiked after 2018, insurers faced a choice: apply for increases and wait years for approval, or exit. Most exited. The FAIR Plan — designed for a few thousand high-risk policies — now covers 684,000. Insurance Commissioner Lara’s attempt to negotiate a private deal with insurers to stay in the market was not publicly disclosed and is now a subject of investigation.
California is a disaster — total Democrat failure. They've had a supermajority for 15 years and housing costs have doubled. The regulations are killing builders. People are leaving by the millions. We built more homes in ONE year under my administration than California builds in THREE. Sad!
Six Democrats running for California governor and every single one of them is promising to fix a crisis their own party created. 15 years of Democrat control, $27 billion spent, and they're still short 3 million homes. That's not a housing crisis — that's a Democrat crisis.
The June 2026 primary will narrow the field to two candidates — in California’s top-two system, both finalists almost certainly will be Democrats. The winner faces a structural problem that extends beyond any single governor: every policy tool that would meaningfully move the housing market — Prop 13 reform, CEQA overhaul, Costa-Hawkins repeal, forcing cities to zone for density — requires either a 2/3 legislative supermajority, a ballot initiative, or sustained enforcement against local governments whose residents vote in Democratic primaries.
SB 79, the transit-oriented housing bill, is real reform — the most significant land-use change in a generation. But its impact will take years to show in permit numbers and years more in actual completed units. The 40,000 fully entitled but unfinanced affordable units need a different kind of fix: a state financing bridge, restructured tax credits, or a direct state purchase program. None of the six candidates has committed to a specific financing mechanism for that backlog.
On insurance, the next governor inherits a FAIR Plan carrying 684,000 policies and a private market that has not returned despite rate-reform pledges from Lara’s office. If a major wildfire season hits before private insurers re-enter at scale, the FAIR Plan faces a potential solvency crisis that would be paid by all California policyholders as an assessment — regardless of whether they ever filed a claim.
The most honest framing of the 2026 governor’s race is this: six Democrats are competing to manage a crisis that Democratic governance produced, using tools that Democratic constituencies have blocked for decades, in a state where the electorate will almost certainly elect one of them anyway. The question is whether any of them is willing to tell their own voters — the homeowners, the NIMBY neighborhood groups, the public employee unions, the trial lawyers who profit from CEQA challenges — that the crisis cannot be solved without costing those voters something. No candidate has made that argument yet.
California is 3 million homes short, its insurance market is in collapse, and six Democrats are running to fix what fifteen years of Democratic supermajority governance built. The crisis is documented. The structural barriers are understood. What’s missing is a candidate willing to tell the constituents who benefited from those barriers that the bill has come due — and a California electorate willing to hear it.