Trump-Backed Hinson Routs the Primary Field for Ernst’s Open Iowa Seat — and Democrats Smell a Pickup.
On June 2, 2026, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) won the Republican nomination for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat, defeating former state senator Jim Carlin (R)by roughly three to one. The Associated Press projected the race early, with about 22% of the expected vote counted — an election-night partial showing Hinson around 75% to Carlin’s 25%.
The seat is open because Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) announced on September 2, 2025 that she would not seek a third term, keeping a two-term pledge. President Donald Trump (R)handed Hinson his “Complete and Total Endorsement” on Truth Social the night before the primary.
On the Democratic side, state Rep. Josh Turek (D) of Council Bluffs — a four-time Paralympian and two-time wheelchair-basketball gold medalist born with spina bifida — beat state Sen. Zach Wahls (D) of Coralville, roughly 63% to 37% in the AP-projected partials. National Democrats, already committing more than $13,400,000 to the race, believe Turek can flip a seat in a state Trump carried by 13 points.
- ~75% / 25%gop primaryHinson over Carlin · election-night, partial · AP-projected (~22% reporting)
- ~63% / 37%dem primaryTurek over Wahls · ~17,000-vote margin · election-night, AP-projected
- +13 ptsiowa 2024Trump's margin over Harris · up from +9 in 2016 and +8 in 2020
- $13,400,000anti-hinson adsSenate Majority PAC (D) buy reserved May 14, 2026
- $29,000,000gop ad reserveSenate Leadership Fund (R) reservation for the general
- $6,500,000hinson cashCash on hand, end of Q1 2026 · per FEC filing
The Iowa Senate race exists in its current form for one reason: Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) chose to leave. On September 2, 2025, Ernst — a combat veteran and the first woman Iowa sent to the U.S. Senate — announced she would not run for a third term, honoring a two-term pledge she made when she first won the seat in 2014. Iowa’s senior senator, Chuck Grassley (R-IA), is not on the 2026 ballot, so this is the state’s only Senate contest this cycle.
Three days later, on September 5, 2025, Rep. Ashley Hinson — a two-term congresswoman representing Iowa’s 2nd District and a former television news anchor in Cedar Rapids — announced her campaign. She entered as the clear establishment favorite, with the backing of Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA) and a fundraising operation that quickly outpaced the rest of the field. Former state senator Jim Carlin (R), a more populist primary challenger, never closed the gap.
When the AP called the GOP primary on the night of June 2, Hinson was leading Carlin by roughly three to one. The figures that circulated on election night — about 75% for Hinson to 25% for Carlin— were partials, drawn from county returns with only about 22% of the expected vote counted. They are not certified final totals from the Iowa Secretary of State, and the precise share will shift as the canvass completes. But the margin was wide enough that the projection came early and was never in doubt.
Hinson framed the win as a product of retail politics. She visited all 99 Iowa counties — the “full Grassley,” in Iowa political shorthand — and leaned on a money advantage that left her with about $6,500,000 in cash on hand at the end of the first quarter of 2026, after raising roughly $2,360,000 in that quarter alone. The Democratic field, by contrast, entered 2026 with its top three candidates holding a combined total of about $1,200,000 in cash.
“It has been working Iowans from all 99 counties — and I've visited every single one of them — who powered this campaign and delivered a resounding victory tonight.”
Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA), primary-night statement · June 2, 2026
The endorsement arrived late, and it arrived big. At 10:46 p.m. ET on June 1, 2026— hours before polls opened — President Trump posted his “Complete and Total Endorsement” of Hinson on Truth Social. The full text, archived at trumpstruth.org, called her “an outstanding Senator” and closed in his signature all-caps register.
Ashley Hinson will be an outstanding Senator, and has my Complete and Total Endorsement... GET OUT AND VOTE FOR ASHLEY — SHE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!
Truth Social · June 1, 2026 — full text archived at trumpstruth.org
Hinson answered on X the same night, posting that she was “all in” alongside the president. Her campaign account framed the endorsement not as a rescue but as a capstone — the seal on a frontrunner candidacy that had already locked up the governor, the money, and the county-by-county ground game.
I'm all in. I'm running for the United States Senate to fight alongside President Trump and deliver for the working Iowans who built this campaign.
The Democratic primary delivered the matchup national party strategists had been quietly hoping for. State Rep. Josh Turek (D) of Council Bluffs defeated state Sen. Zach Wahls (D) of Coralville by roughly 63% to 37% in the AP-projected partials — a margin of about 17,000 votes. Turek’s biography is the kind that writes its own ads: a four-time Paralympian and two-time gold medalist in wheelchair basketball, born with spina bifida, who flipped a Republican-held statehouse district by a single vote in 2022.
Wahls, the better-known statehouse figure and the candidate backed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), had the higher national profile entering the race. He did not have the result. Turek’s win prompted the Cook Political Report to move the general-election rating to Lean Republican — off its earlier Likely Republicanmark — the rating it carries as of this report. That shift is the whole story for Democrats: a seat once filed under “safe” is now merely “leaning.”
I've spent my life proving the experts wrong about what's possible. Iowa's working families deserve a senator who knows what it means to fight for everything you've got. On to November.
Profile reference · campaign account
The money tells the story of how seriously both parties take Iowa. On May 14, 2026, the Senate Majority PAC — the Democratic leadership super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) — reserved $13,400,000 in anti-Hinson advertising. VoteVets, a veterans-focused Democratic group, has added roughly $10,000,000 for Turek. On the Republican side, the Senate Leadership Fund booked a $29,000,000 reservation to defend the seat.
Democrats point to what they call a real signal: their party’s overperformance in 2025 state-legislative special elections, which they read as evidence that Iowa’s electorate is more volatile than its presidential margins suggest. They are betting that inflation, the war with Iran, and Trump’s national approval will drag on the GOP ticket in an open-seat midterm.
The seat: Open. Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) is retiring after two terms (announced Sept 2, 2025).
GOP nominee: Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA, 2nd District) — won the primary ~75%–25% over Jim Carlin (R), AP-projected partial.
Dem nominee: State Rep. Josh Turek (D, Council Bluffs) — won ~63%–37% over state Sen. Zach Wahls (D), ~17,000-vote margin.
General election: November 3, 2026 — Hinson vs. Turek.
Outside money: Senate Majority PAC (D) $13,400,000 anti-Hinson; VoteVets (D) ~$10,000,000 for Turek; Senate Leadership Fund (R) $29,000,000 reserved.
Current rating: Cook Political Report — Lean Republican (moved off Likely Republican after Turek’s primary win).
“A seat that opened as 'safe' is now rated 'leaning' — and both parties just told you, in dollars, exactly how seriously they take that.”
Civic Intelligence — on the post-primary spending picture
Against the Democratic optimism sits a hard number. Trump carried Iowa by 13 points in 2024 — and the trend line runs the wrong way for Democrats: +9 in 2016, +8 in 2020, then +13in 2024. A state that was a genuine swing state as recently as Barack Obama’s two wins has moved steadily right at the presidential level for a decade. Flipping a Senate seat there in a presidential off-year means overcoming a double-digit baseline, not a coin-flip one.
That is why the “Lean Republican” rating is the honest one: not a lock, but a clear advantage. Hinson holds the partisan baseline, the cash lead, the Trump endorsement, and the 99-county network. Turek holds a compelling biography, a national money spigot, and a 2025 special-election trend his party can point to. The general election on November 3, 2026 will test whether a strong candidate and a flood of out-of-state money can move a state that has spent ten years drifting away from his party.
The Lean-R rating is the load-bearing fact. Democrats have a real candidate and real money, but they are spending it to overcome a +13 presidential baseline in a midterm — a credible bet, not a favorite's bet.
Paraphrased commentary · not a verbatim post
Editorial context — paraphrase of this report's framing of the Cook rating.
September 2, 2025: Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) announces she will not seek a third term, keeping her two-term pledge.
September 5, 2025: Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) announces her Senate campaign.
Q1 2026: Hinson reports ~$6,500,000 cash on hand after raising ~$2,360,000 in the quarter.
May 14, 2026: Senate Majority PAC (D) reserves $13,400,000 in anti-Hinson advertising.
June 1, 2026 (10:46 PM ET): President Trump posts his “Complete and Total Endorsement” of Hinson on Truth Social.
June 2, 2026: AP projects Hinson (R) and Turek (D) as their parties’ nominees on election-night partials.
November 3, 2026: General election — Hinson vs. Turek.
Strip away the spin from both directions and the Iowa Senate race is a clean test of a single question: how far has Iowa actually moved? Republicans will tell you the +13 presidential margin makes Hinson a near-lock. Democrats will tell you the 2025 state-Senate flips and Turek’s biography make this the upset of the cycle. Both are arguing from real evidence. The honest read — the one Cook’s “Lean Republican” rating encodes — is that the Republican is favored and the Democrat is live.
What is not in dispute: Hinson won her primary decisively, Trump put his full weight behind her the night before the vote, and Turek gave Democrats exactly the kind of candidate — a gold-medal Paralympian with a swing-district win already on his record — that turns a “safe” seat into a contested one. The $13,400,000 the Democratic leadership PAC has already committed is the clearest evidence that the party believes its own case. Whether Iowa voters agree is the November question.
Ashley Hinson (R-IA) routed her primary roughly 3-to-1 on an election-night partial and a last-night Trump endorsement, locking up the GOP nomination for Joni Ernst’s open seat. Josh Turek (D-IA), a two-time Paralympic gold medalist, won the Democratic side and pulled Cook’s rating to Lean Republican. In a state Trump carried by 13, Democrats are spending $13,400,000 to find out whether a great candidate can beat a deep red baseline. November 3 settles it.
