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October 10, 2026 · Economy · Fuel Prices

Trump Says Russia Will Supply 300,000 Tons of Diesel. Treasury Has Licensed It Through April.

After a call with Vladimir Putin on Friday that the Kremlin also confirmed, President Donald Trump (R) announced that Russia will “immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace,” with larger shipments to follow. The Treasury Department issued a license the same day.

The announcement came with the U.S. national diesel average near $6.28 a gallon, up from $3.68 a year ago, according to AAA figures reported by CBS.

  • 300,000tons announcedfor immediate supply, per Trump's post as quoted by ANI
  • $6.28per gallonnational diesel average on Oct. 9, versus $3.68 a year earlier — AAA via CBS News
  • ~$6.52recordset Sept. 22 — AAA via CBS News and AP
  • Apr. 7, 2027license expiresOFAC General License No. 135, signed Oct. 9, 2026 — U.S. Treasury
  • ~0.6 dayof U.S. demandwhat 300,000 tons equals, by our estimate — EIA demand data
§ 01 / What Was Announced
Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump · Oct. 9, 2026

I have just concluded a highly successful discussion with President Vladimir Putin of Russia, wherein it was agreed that Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace,

Opening of the Truth Social post, as quoted verbatim by the news agency ANI. The full text could not be retrieved.

According to Al Jazeera and CBS, the post went on to describe further shipments: another 500,000 tons in November and 1 million after that. CBS quotes Trump saying Russia would then deliver 3,000,000 tons “within a short period of time.” The Jerusalem Post quotes him writing that “Diesel Prices for Americans and, indeed, the World, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!”

The Kremlin’s readout, per Al Jazeera, said the Russian side “reaffirmed its readiness to supply oil and oil products to the American and world markets.” AP and NPR add that Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told TASS that Russia is lifting its diesel export restrictions ahead of schedule and that supplies to the United States could begin this month. Moscow has not confirmed the tonnage or the schedule. Putin envoy Kirill Dmitriev wrote on X that cooperation “will benefit the world.”

The legal step is on the Treasury’s website. OFAC’s General License No. 135 authorizes transactions related to the sale, delivery, offloading and importation of diesel of Russian origin through April 7, 2027, and does not authorize debits to accounts of the Central Bank of Russia, the National Wealth Fund or the Ministry of Finance. AP describes it as the first easing on diesel longer than the standard 30-day window since the 2022 invasion.

BREAKING: Trump says Russia will supply U.S. with diesel fuel — MS NOW
§ 02 / How Much Fuel That Is

Three hundred thousand metric tons is roughly 2.2 million barrels by our estimate. The EIA reported U.S. distillate product supplied near 3.7 million barrels a day in early September, which makes the first tranche a little over half a day of American demand. The 500,000 and 1 million tons announced for later shipments bring the total to 1.8 million tons, about 3.6 days by the same estimate; if the further 3 million tons CBS quotes Trump describing also arrives, the total is 4.8 million tons, roughly 9.7 days.

By our estimate, the first announced shipment is a little over half of one day's U.S. diesel demand. — Civic Intelligence illustration

Analysts quoted by AP were blunt about price effects. “What does this do to prices? I think probably not much,” said Clayton Seigle of the Center for Strategic and International Studies; Michael Lynch of the Energy Policy Research Foundation called the deal “kind of shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic.” Bloomberg Opinion’s Javier Blas wrote that the quantities were “quite small to make a meaningful impact.”

X
Javier Blas
@JavierBlas · Oct. 9, 2026

BREAKING: US President Trump says he has agreed with Vladimir Putin that Russia would export "to the American and Global Marketplace" diesel. The quantities are, however quite small to make a meaningful impact. Trump says Russia will export immediately ~300,000 tonnes (~2.2…

§ 03 / Who Is Objecting

The objections cross party lines. Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) wrote: “70% of Americans support Ukraine. Propping up Putin’s war economy is morally wrong as he uses that money to bomb cities.” Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) said the move “makes us complicit in Putin’s war against Ukraine,” AP reports, and Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA) called it “infuriating.” Kyiv Post also lists Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX) among the critics. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said: “Gifts to Putin will not bring peace or any benefit to the civilized world,” the Jerusalem Post reports.

X
Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE)
@RepDonBacon · Oct. 9, 2026

70% of Americans support Ukraine. Propping up Putin's war economy is morally wrong as he uses that money to bomb cities. …

Shock as Trump announces deal that will see Russia supply the US with diesel — Sky News

“What does this do to prices? I think probably not much.”

Seigle, Center for Strategic and International Studies — via AP
§ 04 / What Is Still Open
Open Questions

Whether Russia delivers: AP reports the White House did not immediately respond to questions about who will pay for the fuel or when it arrives.

Whether Moscow confirms the tonnage: its readout confirms a readiness to supply and Deputy Prime Minister Novak says export curbs are being lifted, but no tonnage or schedule has been confirmed.

Whether the pump price moves: analysts quoted by AP expect little effect from the first tranche.

Diesel moves freight, farm equipment and heating oil, which is why the number on the pump sign reaches grocery prices quickly. The administration has framed the deal as a price measure; critics frame it as sanctions relief. Both descriptions fit the license text, which does what its title says: it lets Russian diesel be sold and delivered to the United States until April 2027.

President Trump announces Russian diesel is headed to US weeks before midterms — 5NEWS
Bottom Line

Treasury has licensed Russian diesel imports through April 7, 2027, and the president has announced 300,000 tons for immediate supply. By our estimate that is a little over half a day of U.S. demand, and Moscow has not confirmed the tonnage or the schedule.

Sources & Methodology · 17 Sources
The license terms are from the text of OFAC General License No. 135. Trump’s Truth Social post could not be retrieved in full; the quoted opening comes from ANI’s verbatim excerpt, and outlets disagree on the schedule of later shipments (CBS reports 500,000 tons in November and 1 million in December; AP describes them as following “immediately thereafter”), so no schedule is put in quotation marks. The Kremlin’s readout, as reported by Al Jazeera, confirms a “readiness” to supply, and AP and NPR report Deputy Prime Minister Novak’s remarks to TASS about lifting export curbs; neither confirms tonnage or schedule. Our conversion of 300,000 metric tons to about 2.2 million barrels uses roughly 7.45 barrels per tonne, an approximation for diesel; the comparison to U.S. demand divides that by EIA’s roughly 3.7 million barrels per day of distillate supplied. Both figures are our estimates, not government figures. AAA reports the national diesel average at $6.27 (Al Jazeera) or $6.28 (CBS, AP) on Oct. 9, and a record of about $6.52 on Sept. 22 (CBS gives $6.53). The White House did not immediately respond to questions about who would pay for the fuel or when it would arrive, per AP. The first post is quoted verbatim only through ANI; CBS and the Jerusalem Post also quote a second Trump post that we do not reproduce. Newer EIA weekly reports exist; the conclusion does not change on them.