Follow the Money: Who Is Getting Results From College Football’s $50 Million Rosters? Oklahoma Spent Big. Oklahoma State Beat Oregon.
On September 16, The Athletic’s Stewart Mandel, David Ubben and Sam Khan Jr. published what they called college football’s most carefully guarded secret: estimated 2026 roster budgets for 68 teams, drawn from more than 70 sources. The range runs from about $55 million at the top to about $8 million at the bottom. Ohio State ($49–54 million), Oregon ($48–54 million), Texas ($45–55 million), LSU ($47–50 million) and Texas A&M ($45–50 million) lead. Oklahoma sits 20th on The Athletic’s list at $28–34 million. Oklahoma State is near the bottom at $15–19 million, tied with Houston — more than $30 million below Oregon.
The report’s own headline finding: each of the 14 highest-spending teams was in the AP Top 25 after Week 2, and 18 of the 25 highest spenders were ranked. Georgia, at No. 2 on a $31–34 million budget that ranks 19th, was the clearest counterexample. We took the next step and scored every team against its budget.
Each program gets a Performance Index from 0 to 100 through Oct. 3: half win percentage, half average scoring margin, minus eight points for every loss to a non-Power Four opponent. We then drew a line through index-versus-budget for all 67 schools and measured how far each lands above or below it — value over expected. The slider changes the weights; the ranking is yours to stress-test.
Money does buy results on average: the ten highest-spending schools average an index of 84, against 67 for all 67 teams. But the link is loose. Budget explains only about 14 percent of the variation (r = 0.37) five weeks in. The best returns belong to Duke (4–0, $12–15 million), Utah (4–0, $18–22 million, allowing 10.3 points a game), Pittsburgh (5–0, $16–20 million), BYU, Georgia, UCLA, Nebraska and Indiana. The worst belong to Stanford, Rutgers, Arkansas, Georgia Tech and California. Among the priciest rosters, the weakest returns are Texas A&M (3–2, $45–50 million, preseason No. 8, now unranked), Oklahoma and Michigan (3–2, $36–40 million).
| Rec | AP | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | 4–0 | 13.5 | 36.3 | 11.0 | 95.3 | +39.2 | NR→NR |
| Utah | 4–0 | 20 | 43.3 | 10.3 | 100.0 | +38.9 | 21→12 |
| Pittsburgh | 5–0 | 18 | 38.4 | 13.4 | 95.0 | +35.4 | NR→25 |
| BYU | 4–0 | 22.5 | 37.3 | 14.3 | 93.0 | +29.9 | 14→8 |
| Georgia | 5–0 | 32.5 | 51.4 | 13.4 | 100.0 | +29.1 | 3→2 |
| UCLA | 4–0 | 28 | 44.8 | 18.8 | 96.0 | +28.6 | NR→21 |
| Nebraska | 5–0 | 33 | 43.6 | 14.2 | 99.4 | +28.1 | NR→NR |
| Indiana | 5–0 | 38 | 44.2 | 10.8 | 100.0 | +24.8 | 6→7 |
| Houston | 4–1 | 17 | 41.0 | 19.8 | 81.2 | +22.4 | 23→22 |
| Alabama | 5–0 | 40 | 49.6 | 20.8 | 98.8 | +22.0 | 13→6 |
| Kansas State | 3–1 | 20.5 | 40.5 | 15.3 | 82.8 | +21.2 | NR→NR |
| Baylor | 4–1 | 21.5 | 34.8 | 14.2 | 80.6 | +18.3 | NR→NR |
| Arizona | 4–1 | 15.5 | 32.4 | 16.6 | 75.8 | +18.2 | NR→NR |
| Miami | 5–0 | 47 | 49.6 | 9.8 | 100.0 | +17.7 | 7→4 |
| Iowa | 4–1 | 19 | 29.0 | 12.6 | 76.4 | +16.1 | 22→20 |
Oklahoma opened the season ranked No. 10 with a roster estimated at $28–34 million. It beat UTEP 51–0 on September 4, then went 1–2: a 10–17 loss at Michigan, a 14–6 home win over Mountain West New Mexico, and a 41–13 loss at Georgia. The Sooners are unranked, averaging 22 points a game, and sit about 19 index points below what their budget predicts.
The New Mexico game drew attention for a late spot. On the Lobos’ final drive, New Mexico’s athletic department wrote that running back Keifer Sibley “was ruled short after it looked like he had reached the first-down marker,” and that New Mexico then failed to convert a fourth-and-2 with 3:02 left — its third red-zone possession without a touchdown. Oklahoma won by eight before 83,423 in Norman. We report the ruling as New Mexico describes it; we could not independently verify video of the play. Oklahoma’s offense ran 32 times for 61 yards that night, per Roundtable’s recap.
The money is concentrated at quarterback. The NIL Standard’s independent estimate, as of September 17, puts quarterback John Mateer’s annualized market value at $3 million — the highest on the roster and about $1.1 million more than the next player. That is an estimate, not a reported contract. Through four games Mateer has completed 66 percent of his passes for 883 yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions, two of them against New Mexico. The offense around him has not scored more than 14 points since the UTEP game.
The defense faces heavy turnover regardless of how the season ends. On the CBS Sports roster, 15 of Oklahoma’s 39 listed defenders carry a senior-or-older class label, including five of the 12 starters on the Week 1 depth chart: Taylor Wein, Adepoju Adebawore, Owen Heinecke, Kip Lewis and Peyton Bowen. 247Sports notes that Heinecke, Lewis, Bowen and Adebawore have exhausted their eligibility after 2026. A class label alone does not prove a player cannot return, so we count only those four as confirmed departures.
Next is Saturday’s Red River Rivalry in Dallas against No. 1 Texas, which was favored by 9.5 points. Brent Venables is 1–3 against Texas: 49–0 (2022), a 34–30 Oklahoma win (2023), 34–3 (2024) and 23–6 (2025). Texas has won two straight; a third would be its first three-game streak in the series since 1997–99.
Oklahoma State went 1–11 last year and began 2026 on a 21-game losing streak against FBS opponents. It opened with a 24–10 loss at Tulsa. Then, in a weather-delayed game in Stillwater on September 12, the Cowboys beat No. 6 Oregon 39–31 as a 23½-point underdog. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker threw for 317 yards and ran for 109 more in coach Eric Morris’s first win. Oregon’s roster is estimated at $48–54 million; Oklahoma State’s at $15–19 million.
Since then, Oklahoma State beat Murray State 59–0 and West Virginia 41–24 — 46.3 points a game across the three-game streak, 37.3 over four — and is No. 18. Oregon fell from preseason No. 2 to No. 21 in the Week 3 poll and is back to No. 13 at 3–1. The model is less generous than the headlines: the Tulsa loss counts as a non-Power Four defeat, which puts Oklahoma State about eight points above its budget line, 24th of 67. The upset is among the largest gaps between payroll and result so far; the best season-long return still belongs to Duke, Utah and Pittsburgh.
DREW MESTEMAKER, ARE YOU SERIOUS?!?! Oklahoma State is back in front!
Preseason polls priced the money in, and five weeks have repriced it. Texas (5 to 1), Alabama (13 to 6), BYU (14 to 8), Utah (21 to 12) and Missouri (25 to 14) climbed. Oregon (2 to 13) and Ohio State (1 to 5) slipped; Texas A&M (8), Oklahoma (10), Michigan (16), Washington (17), Penn State (18) and Louisville (24) fell out entirely. Oklahoma State, UCLA, Pittsburgh, Florida and Mississippi State entered.
- Texas: preseason 5, now 1
- Georgia: preseason 3, now 2
- Miami: preseason 7, now 4
- Ohio State: preseason 1, now 5
- Alabama: preseason 13, now 6
- Indiana: preseason 6, now 7
- BYU: preseason 14, now 8
- Ole Miss: preseason 9, now 9
- LSU: preseason 11, now 10
- Texas Tech: preseason 12, now 11
- Utah: preseason 21, now 12
- Oregon: preseason 2, now 13
- Missouri: preseason 25, now 14
- Tennessee: preseason 20, now 15
- Florida: preseason unranked, now 16
- Mississippi State: preseason unranked, now 17
- Oklahoma State: preseason unranked, now 18
- USC: preseason 15, now 19
- Iowa: preseason 22, now 20
- UCLA: preseason unranked, now 21
- Houston: preseason 23, now 22
- SMU: preseason 19, now 24
- Pittsburgh: preseason unranked, now 25
- Texas A&M: preseason 8, now unranked
- Oklahoma: preseason 10, now unranked
- Michigan: preseason 16, now unranked
- Washington: preseason 17, now unranked
- Penn State: preseason 18, now unranked
- Louisville: preseason 24, now unranked
History says expensive is not the same as inevitable. Indiana won last year’s title at 16–0 on a budget coach Curt Cignetti put “closer to $15 million than $40 million.” Texas Tech reached its first playoff on a roster reported at more than $28 million. Ohio State won the 2024 title on about $20 million; its 2026 estimate is more than double that. Colorado is the warning: 9–4 in 2024, 3–9 in 2025, 2–3 now. The pattern fits the data above — a bigger budget raises the floor, not the ceiling.
College football's most carefully guarded secret is the amount of money flowing to the players on each roster. So we reached out to 70 sources across the sport. Estimated budgets for all 68 teams:
Drew Mestemaker with a massive 75-yard rush on Oklahoma State's first play of the game
Money buys wins on average and guarantees nothing. The ten biggest rosters average a Performance Index of 84, against 67 for the field, but budget explains only about 14percent of the spread. Oklahoma is the clearest cautionary tale: a $28–34 million roster, a 2–2 record and an unranked team heading into Texas. Oklahoma State’s win over Oregon is among the biggest gaps between payroll and result so far — but the best season-long returns belong to Duke, Utah and Pittsburgh. Five weeks is a small sample; check back as the schedules harden.
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- 03.Heartland College Sports·Big 12 football roster spending: how much every team spends (Sept. 18, 2026)
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- 09.New Mexico Athletics·Lobos battle No. 24/21 Oklahoma to the wire in 14-6 setback — final-drive account
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- 16.Sports Illustrated (Texas)·Sizing up whether Texas will extend its Red River Rivalry winning streak in 2026
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